Qatar’s Energy Minister, Saad al-Kaabi, has warned that the ongoing war in the Middle East could drive crude oil prices to $150 per barrel in the coming weeks if tensions do not ease.
He said the situation could “bring down the economies of the world,” predicting that all Gulf energy exporters could shut down production within days.
Speaking in an exclusive interview with the Financial Times, Al-Kaabi said that even if the war ended immediately, it would take Qatar “weeks to months” to return to a normal delivery cycle following an Iranian drone strike on its largest liquefied natural gas plant.
Qatar, the world’s second-largest producer of liquefied natural gas (LNG), was forced to declare force majeure this week after the strike on its Ras Laffan LNG plant.
While Qatar exports only a small portion of its gas to Europe, the energy minister said the continent would still feel significant pain as Asian buyers outbid Europeans for available gas supplies. The situation could worsen if other Gulf producers are unable to meet their contractual obligations.
“Everybody that has not called for force majeure we expect will do so in the next few days if this continues. All exporters in the Gulf region will have to call force majeure,” Al-Kaabi said.
“If they don’t, they are at some point going to pay the liability for that legally, and that’s their choice.”
Al-Kaabi’s comments reflect rising concern in the Gulf over the economic repercussions of the war involving the United States and Israel against Iran, which has disrupted activity across the oil-rich region.
Brent crude rose to $91 per barrel on Friday afternoon, the highest level since the start of the conflict.
“This will bring down the economies of the world,” he said. “If this war continues for a few weeks, global GDP growth will be impacted. Energy prices will rise everywhere. There will be shortages of some products and a chain reaction of factories that cannot supply.”
Al-Kaabi said there had been no damage to Qatar’s offshore operations, but the full impact of the strike onshore is still being assessed.
“We don’t yet know the extent of the damage, as it is currently still being assessed. It is not clear yet how long repairs will take,” he said.
Qatar’s $30 billion expansion project aimed at increasing production capacity at its vast North Field gas field from 77 million tonnes to 126 million tonnes per year by 2027 will also be delayed, he added. Initial production had been scheduled to begin in the third quarter of this year.
“It will delay all our expansion plans for sure,” Al-Kaabi said. “If we return in a week, perhaps the effect is minimal; if it takes a month or two, it will be different.”
He also forecast that crude prices could soar to $150 per barrel within two to three weeks if tankers and merchant vessels are unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a key maritime route through which about one-fifth of the world’s oil and gas supplies pass.
He predicted that natural gas prices could rise to $40 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) — nearly four times the level before the war began.
Al-Kaabi added that disruptions to maritime trade through the strait would extend far beyond energy markets, affecting multiple industries because the region produces much of the world’s petrochemicals and fertiliser feedstocks.
Traffic through the waterway has slowed to a halt since the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran on Saturday.
At least 10 ships have been hit, insurance premiums have soared, and shipping companies are increasingly reluctant to risk their vessels and crews.
Donald Trump and Israeli officials have warned the war could last several weeks as they seek to dismantle Iran’s ruling regime.
Trump said this week that the U.S. Navy would escort ships through the strait and that the United States could offer additional insurance support to shipping companies.
However, Al-Kaabi said it would still be unsafe for vessels to pass through the strait, which is just 24 miles wide at its narrowest point and runs along Iran’s coastline, as long as the war continues.
“The way we are seeing the attacks, bringing ships into the strait is too dangerous. It is too close to the shore to bring ships in,” he said.
“It will be difficult to convince ships to go in. Most shipowners will see that they become bigger targets because Iran is targeting military ships.”
Al-Kaabi added that disruptions would not only affect energy shipments.
“In addition to energy, there will be a halt to all other trade between the Gulf and the rest of the world, which will significantly affect the economies of the Gulf and all trading partners globally,” he said.
Qatar, which hosts the largest American military base in the region, has traditionally maintained good relations with Iran. However, Tehran has launched multiple barrages of missiles and drones toward Qatar and other Gulf states as it seeks to increase pressure on the United States by targeting energy facilities, airports, military bases and embassies.
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