Commercial Oil Inventories Depleting Rapidly, With Only Weeks Left, Says IEA Chief

The Executive Director of the International Energy Agency (IEA), Fatih Birol, has revealed that commercial oil inventories are depleting rapidly, with only a few weeks’ worth of supply left due to the Iran war and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz to shipping.

According to reports, Birol told reporters on Monday during the Group of Seven finance leaders’ meeting in Paris that the release of strategic oil reserves had added 2.5 million barrels of oil per day to the market, but noted that these reserves “are not endless.”

Birol added that the onset of the spring planting and summer travel seasons in the Northern Hemisphere would drain inventories more quickly as demand for diesel, fertilizer, jet fuel, and gasoline increases.

He said that before the United States and Israel launched attacks on Iran at the end of February, there was a major surplus in the oil market and commercial inventories were very high. However, the situation has rapidly shifted due to the war.

He stated that commercial inventories would last “several weeks, but we should be aware of the fact that they are declining rapidly.”

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Last week, the IEA said global oil supply will fall short of total demand this year as the Iran conflict disrupts Middle East oil production, with inventories being drained at an unprecedented pace. The agency had previously forecast a surplus for the year.

Global observed oil inventories fell at a record pace in March and April, dropping by 246 million barrels, the IEA said in its latest monthly oil market report.

The 32-member IEA coordinated the largest-ever release of stocks from strategic reserves in March, agreeing to withdraw 400 million barrels in a bid to calm markets. Around 164 million barrels had been released by May 8, it said.

Overall, global oil supply is expected to fall by around 3.9 million barrels per day in 2026 due to the war, the agency said, sharply revising its previous forecast, which had projected a 1.5 million bpd decline.