U.S. President Donald Trump told Americans on Wednesday that oil prices, which have surged because of the war with Iran, would not come down until after the U.S. midterm elections.
Oil prices jumped more than 3% on Wednesday, pushing international benchmark Brent crude above $100 a barrel for the first time since July as exchanges of fire between the United States and Iran escalated.
“Right after the election, oil prices are going to be tumbling downward,” Trump said, according to the Associated Press.
“I think it’s going to take a little bit longer than the midterm,” he added.
Speaking to reporters before traveling to Dallas for the Republican midterm convention, Trump said he believed Iran would finally relent after the pivotal U.S. elections.
“They’re desperate to try and affect the election, so that we can get a nice weak group of people in there and leave them alone and let them have their nuclear weapon,” Trump said.
“I think the war’s going to end immediately after the election because they can’t hold out any longer,” he added.
Trump initially said at the outset of the war that it would last only a matter of weeks. The conflict is now in its seventh month.
The U.S.-Israeli war with Iran has sharply reduced the volume of Gulf oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz, through which about 20% of the world’s petroleum passed before the conflict.
Trump’s comments were a striking acknowledgment of the conflict’s duration as his administration faces mounting pressure to address high gasoline prices while the war drags on with no end in sight.
Trump last week dismissed the conflict as “small potatoes”, even as Republicans expressed concern that the war could weigh heavily on voters facing higher gasoline prices and inflation.
The United States has tapped its Strategic Petroleum Reserve, which fell below 300 million barrels in early August, down more than 100 million barrels since the start of 2026.
Trump’s prediction that the war would not end until after Nov. 3 came after Vice President JD Vance last week declined to predict that the conflict would be over by the midterm elections, in which Republicans are seeking to retain their narrow majorities in Congress.
Vance told reporters he did not want to set “artificial timelines” for the war’s end.
“But when you ask, ‘When will this end?’ You’re asking me a question like, ‘When will the Iranians stop shooting at ships?’” Vance said. “I think the reality is, I don’t know the answer to that question. You would have to ask the Iranians.”
U.S. benchmark crude was trading at around $96 a barrel on Wednesday, while U.S. gasoline prices rose sharply overnight.
The average price for a gallon of regular gasoline rose 7 cents overnight to $4.22, more than $1 above its level at the same time last year, according to AAA.
Diesel prices, which can have an outsized impact on consumers because the fuel is widely used in shipping and production, hit a record high on Friday and have continued to rise. The average price per gallon climbed to $5.94 overnight, up 9 cents from Friday.
Jet fuel has also become so expensive that U.S. and international airlines have cut flights while raising fares and fees.
The latest market gyrations came after the U.S. military said it had struck five Iranian tankers in response to attempted missile attacks on a U.S. Navy warship, while attacks by the Iranian-backed Houthi rebel group set fire to oil facilities in Saudi Arabia.
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