OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Forecast

Summary 

• OPEC has lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026 due to geopolitical tensions linked to the Iran war, while slightly raising its outlook for 2027.

• The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted oil flows, reduced output, and contributed to higher fuel prices and supply constraints globally.

• Despite the downgrade for 2026, OPEC expects demand to remain resilient overall, supported by steady global economic growth and a projected rebound in consumption.

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) has taken a strategic decision to lower its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2026, joining other forecasters such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) in cutting expectations due to the Iran war.

The oil cartel expects a smaller hit to demand than the IEA, which earlier on Wednesday raised its estimate of the decline in oil use this year. OPEC said consumption would rebound later and raised its demand growth forecast for 2027.

The war has effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil route, curbing millions of barrels of Middle East output and sending fuel prices soaring.

The surge is hitting consumers and businesses, prompting governments to take steps to conserve supplies.

World oil demand will rise by 1.17 million barrels per day in 2026, OPEC said, down from the previously expected 1.38 million bpd. For 2027, OPEC now expects oil demand to rise by 1.54 million bpd, up by 200,000 bpd from the previous forecast.

“The global economic growth continues to show resilience this year despite geopolitical tensions, particularly in the Middle East,” OPEC said, leaving its economic growth forecasts unchanged.

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Global oil demand is expected to average 104.57 million bpd in the second quarter, down from the 105.07 million bpd forecast last month, OPEC said. The previous report had already cut the second-quarter estimate by 500,000 bpd.

OPEC+, which groups the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies such as Russia, had agreed to resume output increases from April, but the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has made it impossible to fully deliver on the deal. The report said output fell further in April.

OPEC+ crude output averaged 33.19 million bpd in April, down 1.74 million bpd from March, the report said, citing secondary sources OPEC uses to monitor production.

The April figure includes the United Arab Emirates, which left OPEC on May 1.