Iran Threatens To Leave Nuclear Treaty And Close Strait Of Hormuz

Amid an escalating Israeli air campaign against Iran, calls are mounting in Tehran to withdraw from the Treaty on the Non-Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons (NPT) and close the Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical oil routes.

The archenemies have been trading fire since June 13 after Israel launched an unprecedented attack on Iran’s nuclear sites, military bases, and residential areas in a bid to hinder Tehran’s program and eliminate top military leadership.

Several high-profile Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) commanders and nuclear scientists have been killed in the attacks. Iran’s Health Ministry said on June 15 that 224 people, including children, had been killed.

At least 24 people, including civilians, have been killed in Iranian counterstrikes, according to Israeli authorities.

Israel said it launched its attack because it had concluded that Iran was weeks, if not days, away from enriching uranium and acquiring a nuclear weapon. Iran rejects the claim, insisting that its nuclear program is peaceful.

Iran’s parliament is moving forward with a bill to withdraw from the NPT, Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmail Baqaei announced on June 16. Iranian officials are also threatening to close the Strait of Hormuz if the attacks continue.

But experts warn Tehran’s threats may be more about political theater than imminent change.

NPT Withdrawal: More Bark Than Bite?

Hard-line Iranian lawmaker Hamid Rasaee over the weekend charged that there was no point in remaining in the NPT since it had failed to protect Iran’s nuclear sites from attacks.

Fellow hard-line legislator Mohammad Mannan weighed in, announcing that a high-priority bill would be submitted to the parliament to push ahead with the withdrawal.

Despite the heated rhetoric in Tehran, experts say Iran is unlikely to actually leave the treaty anytime soon.

“For now, Iran appears unlikely to withdraw from the NPT, despite growing pressure from hard-liners,” Hamidreza Azizi, a fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, told RFE/RL.

Even if the parliament passes the bill, it needs to be approved by the Guardians Council, Iran’s constitutional watchdog whose members are  directly and indirectly appointed by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, the country’s commander in chief who has the final say on all state matters.

Azizi argued that withdrawing from the NPT would effectively gut Iran’s legal defense.

“Tehran has so far based its defense at the international level on the assertion that Israel’s actions are unlawful, citing the absence of an imminent threat. Exiting the NPT would undermine this line entirely.”

In 2010, Khamenei issued a fatwa a religious ruling declaring the use of nuclear weapons as “haram,” or forbidden under Islamic law, and stating that Iran would not pursue them.

Iranian officials have frequently pointed to this decree as proof that the Islamic republic has no intention of developing nuclear weapons.

However, analysts argue that the fatwa does not present a serious obstacle to Iran acquiring a bomb.

They note that Iran could carry out much of the necessary work while the fatwa remains in place, and Khamenei could simply revoke it at a later stage if a decision were made to move forward.

Baqaei said on June 16 that, despite legislative efforts to initiate Iran’s withdrawal from the NPT, Tehran is not looking to acquire nuclear weapons.

Strait Of Hormuz: High Stakes, Low Odds

Hard-line media and several officials have again raised the possibility of closing the Strait of Hormuz a move that would threaten nearly a fifth of the world’s oil supply.

But Gregory Brew, a senior Iran and oil analyst at the New York-based Eurasia Group, says it’s a threat Tehran is unlikely to carry out.

“Closing the strait is Iran’s last big card to play,” Brew told RFE/RL. “It has the means of essentially blockading the waterway…by deploying short-range ballistic missiles, naval vessels, and mines.”

But attempting to blockade the strategic strait would have major ramifications, such as “immediately” triggering a response from the United States and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC).

“If war with Israel is proving very damaging, war with the US (and the GCC) would be much worse,” Brew said.

Economically, closing the Strait of Hormuz would also hurt Iran itself because it is using the waterway to export oil, mostly to China.

“So long as that continues, I don’t think it will act on its threats,” Brew added.

Source: Oilprice.com