Petrol and diesel pump prices in Ghana are expected to decline marginally from October 16, 2026, while liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) prices are projected to rise sharply, according to the Chamber of Oil Marketing Companies (COMAC).
The industry association projects petrol prices will fall by between 1.20% and 1.67%, while diesel prices are expected to decline by between 2.60% and 3.32%.
Petrol is expected to sell at GH¢17.67 per litre, while diesel is projected to fall to GH¢19.60 per litre.
LPG, however, is expected to rise by 18.5% to GH¢20.60 per kilogram.
COMAC attributed the projected adjustments to developments in international markets and recent government subsidy measures.
In its report, the Chamber said average crude oil prices rose by 2.03% to US$126.73 per barrel for the pricing window beginning October 16.
It attributed the increase to renewed supply concerns as Ukraine questioned a proposed U.S.-backed energy ceasefire and Saudi Arabia faced fresh attacks amid the war with Iran.
Prices of refined petroleum products, however, recorded mixed movements. LPG prices rose by 7.77%, while diesel fell by 6.68% and petrol declined by 3.93%.
Meanwhile, the Ghanaian cedi depreciated by 1.61% to GH¢11.8222 per U.S. dollar, based on average bank rates between September 26 and October 11, 2026.
The Chamber said the cedi had lost more than 11% against the dollar so far this year, with seasonal import demand and higher energy costs continuing to put pressure on the currency.
Despite these developments, petrol and diesel prices are expected to record modest reductions at the pumps, in line with projections issued by several analysts earlier this month.
For the second pricing window in October, the National Petroleum Authority (NPA) has reduced the petrol price floor to GH¢16.09 per litre from GH¢16.45.
The diesel price floor has also been lowered to GH¢17.09 per litre from GH¢17.97.
The LPG price floor, however, has increased to GH¢13.87 per kilogram from GH¢11.10.
The NPA said these price floors exclude premiums charged by International Oil Trading Companies (IOTCs), operating margins of Bulk Import, Distribution and Export Companies (BIDECs), and margins charged by Oil Marketing Companies and LPG Marketing Companies.
These charges will be determined independently by the respective companies in accordance with the prescribed Petroleum Products Pricing Formula.
During the first pricing window in October, most oil marketing companies maintained pump prices at the levels of the previous window. This followed the government’s GH¢2-per-litre intervention on diesel and agreements by Tema Oil Refinery and Sentuo Oil Refinery to sell products to bulk distribution companies at free-on-board (FOB) prices.
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